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Migration from El Salvador has doubled in past 6 months

Only four months ago, the government of El Salvador responded to Trump administration criticism on migration by stating that El Salvador had managed to reduce migration by 60%.    But starting in late 2018, all of that reduction in migration has vanished, and today large numbers of Salvadorans continue to flow north, fleeing violence or poverty, with caravans or human smuggler coyotes.

According to US Customs and Border Protection statistics, in the 12 months ended September 30, 2018, approximately 31,000 Salvadorans were apprehended crossing the US border outside of official entry points.  This was down from 71,000 during the same time period in 2016.  Now, however, in the six month period from October 1, 2018 until March 31, 2019, there have been 30,862 apprehensions, or almost as many as the entire year before.  In other words, the rate of migration appears to have doubled in the past six months.  In addition, approximately 1,750 additional Salvadorans crossed the US border at official points of entry asking for asylum.

In a speech at the Heritage Foundation, Nayib Bukele pledged that undocumented migration from El Salvador will have ceased by the end of his administration.  His task is daily getting harder, and his election does not appear to have encouraged people to stay in the country.   

I have set out the data below.  An important point to notice is that, while migration from El Salvador has increased significantly, the increases from Honduras and Guatemala are huge.   Honduras is actually on a pace to have 2% of the Honduran population, one out of every 50,  apprehended at the US border this year.

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Link to Excel file with this data.

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